Free tool · Updates weekly · Week 1
QB start or sit — week 1
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 1 · Sep 8 – Sep 14
Start these QBs — week 1
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ CIN | 23.3 | +2.8 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 2.8 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs WAS | 24.5 | +2.5 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 2.5 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs ARI | 19 | +2.3 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.3 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ TEN | 20.8 | +1.9 | @ TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.9 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs TB | 22.7 | +1.5 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ IND | 24.2 | +1.2 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs CLE | 16.8 | -0.3 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ CAR | 17.8 | -0.4 | @ CAR grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ LAR | 17.2 | -0.6 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ LAC | 18.4 | -1.2 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 1 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ SEA | 14.6 | -2.8 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.8 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ HOU | 20.6 | -2.7 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 2.7 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs DEN | 19.5 | -2 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ PHI | 20.7 | -1.8 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ MIN | 18.4 | -1.6 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ KC | 17.2 | -1.4 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ LAC | 18.4 | -1.2 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ LAR | 17.2 | -0.6 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ CAR | 17.8 | -0.4 | @ CAR grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs CLE | 16.8 | -0.3 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
Week 1 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs WAS | 24.5 | +2.5 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 2.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ IND | 24.2 | +1.2 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ CIN | 23.3 | +2.8 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 2.8 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs TB | 22.7 | +1.5 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ TEN | 20.8 | +1.9 | @ TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.9 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ PHI | 20.7 | -1.8 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ HOU | 20.6 | -2.7 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 2.7 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs DEN | 19.5 | -2 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs ARI | 19 | +2.3 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.3 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ MIN | 18.4 | -1.6 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ LAC | 18.4 | -1.2 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ CAR | 17.8 | -0.4 | @ CAR grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ KC | 17.2 | -1.4 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ LAR | 17.2 | -0.6 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs CLE | 16.8 | -0.3 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ SEA | 14.6 | -2.8 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.8 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 1 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- TB @ CINLead option: Baker Mayfield · 23.3 pts+2.8
- PHI vs WASLead option: Jalen Hurts · 24.5 pts+2.5
- LAC vs ARILead option: Justin Herbert · 19 pts+2.3
- NYJ @ TENLead option: Justin Fields · 20.8 pts+1.9
- CIN vs TBLead option: Joe Burrow · 22.7 pts+1.5
Biggest QB downside
- NE @ SEALead option: Drake Maye · 14.6 pts-2.8
- BUF @ HOULead option: Josh Allen · 20.6 pts-2.7
- KC vs DENLead option: Patrick Mahomes · 19.5 pts-2
- WAS @ PHILead option: Jayden Daniels · 20.7 pts-1.8
- GB @ MINLead option: Jordan Love · 18.4 pts-1.6
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 1 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.