Free tool · Dec 8 – Dec 14

Week 14 QB start or sit

Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.

Week 14 · Dec 8 – Dec 14

Start these QBs — week 14

Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ CIN24.7+3.2@ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.2 points above a normal week.
2Bo NixQB · DEN@ NYJ21.6+3@ NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3 points above a normal week.
3Jalen HurtsQB · PHIvs IND23.3+1.3vs IND grades neutral — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week.
4Lamar JacksonQB · BALvs TB24.2+1.2vs TB grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week.
5Justin HerbertQB · LAC@ LV17.8+1.1@ LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week.
6Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI@ MIA18.9+0.7@ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week.
7Baker MayfieldQB · TB@ BAL20.7+0.2@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week.
8Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXvs PIT16.9-0.2vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week.
9Josh AllenQB · BUF@ GB22.7-0.6@ GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week.
10Brock PurdyQB · SFvs LAR17.2-0.6vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week.

Sit or downgrade — week 14 QBs

The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Jayden DanielsQB · WASvs HOU19.9-2.6vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week.
2Justin FieldsQB · NYJvs DEN16.6-2.3vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2.3 points below a normal week.
3Drake MayeQB · NEvs MIN15.5-1.9vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week.
4Joe BurrowQB · CINvs KC20.3-0.9vs KC grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week.
5Jordan LoveQB · GBvs BUF19.3-0.7vs BUF grades tough — about 0.7 points below a normal week.
6Josh AllenQB · BUF@ GB22.7-0.6@ GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week.
7Brock PurdyQB · SFvs LAR17.2-0.6vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week.
8Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXvs PIT16.9-0.2vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week.
9Baker MayfieldQB · TB@ BAL20.7+0.2@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week.
10Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI@ MIA18.9+0.7@ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week.

Week 14 QB rankings

Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ CIN24.7+3.2@ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.2 points above a normal week.
2Lamar JacksonQB · BALvs TB24.2+1.2vs TB grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week.
3Jalen HurtsQB · PHIvs IND23.3+1.3vs IND grades neutral — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week.
4Josh AllenQB · BUF@ GB22.7-0.6@ GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week.
5Bo NixQB · DEN@ NYJ21.6+3@ NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3 points above a normal week.
6Baker MayfieldQB · TB@ BAL20.7+0.2@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week.
7Joe BurrowQB · CINvs KC20.3-0.9vs KC grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week.
8Jayden DanielsQB · WASvs HOU19.9-2.6vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week.
9Jordan LoveQB · GBvs BUF19.3-0.7vs BUF grades tough — about 0.7 points below a normal week.
10Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI@ MIA18.9+0.7@ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week.
11Justin HerbertQB · LAC@ LV17.8+1.1@ LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week.
12Brock PurdyQB · SFvs LAR17.2-0.6vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week.
13Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXvs PIT16.9-0.2vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week.
14Justin FieldsQB · NYJvs DEN16.6-2.3vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2.3 points below a normal week.
15Drake MayeQB · NEvs MIN15.5-1.9vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week.

On bye in week 14

ARI

Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.

Week 14 QB matchup heatmap

Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.

Biggest QB upside

  1. KC @ CINLead option: Patrick Mahomes · 24.7 pts+3.2
  2. DEN @ NYJLead option: Bo Nix · 21.6 pts+3
  3. PHI vs INDLead option: Jalen Hurts · 23.3 pts+1.3
  4. BAL vs TBLead option: Lamar Jackson · 24.2 pts+1.2
  5. LAC @ LVLead option: Justin Herbert · 17.8 pts+1.1

Biggest QB downside

  1. WAS vs HOULead option: Jayden Daniels · 19.9 pts-2.6
  2. NYJ vs DENLead option: Justin Fields · 16.6 pts-2.3
  3. NE vs MINLead option: Drake Maye · 15.5 pts-1.9
  4. CIN vs KCLead option: Joe Burrow · 20.3 pts-0.9
  5. GB vs BUFLead option: Jordan Love · 19.3 pts-0.7

Built from the same matchup grades as the week 14 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.

Other positions, week 14