Free tool · Dec 8 – Dec 14
Week 14 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 14 · Dec 8 – Dec 14
Start these QBs — week 14
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ CIN | 24.7 | +3.2 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.2 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ NYJ | 21.6 | +3 | @ NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs IND | 23.3 | +1.3 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs TB | 24.2 | +1.2 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ LV | 17.8 | +1.1 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ MIA | 18.9 | +0.7 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ BAL | 20.7 | +0.2 | @ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs PIT | 16.9 | -0.2 | vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ GB | 22.7 | -0.6 | @ GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs LAR | 17.2 | -0.6 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 14 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs HOU | 19.9 | -2.6 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs DEN | 16.6 | -2.3 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2.3 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs MIN | 15.5 | -1.9 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs KC | 20.3 | -0.9 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs BUF | 19.3 | -0.7 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ GB | 22.7 | -0.6 | @ GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs LAR | 17.2 | -0.6 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs PIT | 16.9 | -0.2 | vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ BAL | 20.7 | +0.2 | @ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ MIA | 18.9 | +0.7 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
Week 14 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ CIN | 24.7 | +3.2 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.2 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs TB | 24.2 | +1.2 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs IND | 23.3 | +1.3 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ GB | 22.7 | -0.6 | @ GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ NYJ | 21.6 | +3 | @ NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ BAL | 20.7 | +0.2 | @ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs KC | 20.3 | -0.9 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs HOU | 19.9 | -2.6 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs BUF | 19.3 | -0.7 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ MIA | 18.9 | +0.7 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ LV | 17.8 | +1.1 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs LAR | 17.2 | -0.6 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs PIT | 16.9 | -0.2 | vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs DEN | 16.6 | -2.3 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2.3 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs MIN | 15.5 | -1.9 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
On bye in week 14
ARI
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 14 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- KC @ CINLead option: Patrick Mahomes · 24.7 pts+3.2
- DEN @ NYJLead option: Bo Nix · 21.6 pts+3
- PHI vs INDLead option: Jalen Hurts · 23.3 pts+1.3
- BAL vs TBLead option: Lamar Jackson · 24.2 pts+1.2
- LAC @ LVLead option: Justin Herbert · 17.8 pts+1.1
Biggest QB downside
- WAS vs HOULead option: Jayden Daniels · 19.9 pts-2.6
- NYJ vs DENLead option: Justin Fields · 16.6 pts-2.3
- NE vs MINLead option: Drake Maye · 15.5 pts-1.9
- CIN vs KCLead option: Joe Burrow · 20.3 pts-0.9
- GB vs BUFLead option: Jordan Love · 19.3 pts-0.7
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 14 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.