Free tool · Dec 15 – Dec 21
Week 15 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 15 · Dec 15 – Dec 21
Start these QBs — week 15
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs NYJ | 22.7 | +3.1 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3.1 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ ARI | 21.1 | +2.2 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ LV | 19.8 | +1.2 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs CHI | 24.3 | +1 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs MIA | 20.8 | +0.8 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs ATL | 23.1 | +0.6 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ CAR | 21.8 | +0.6 | @ CAR grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ PIT | 23.4 | +0.4 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs NO | 20.3 | -0.2 | vs NO grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs SF | 16.4 | -0.3 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 15 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ HOU | 14.8 | -2.3 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 2.3 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs SEA | 19.8 | -2.2 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 2.2 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ KC | 15.4 | -2 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs NE | 19.7 | -1.8 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ BUF | 17.4 | -0.8 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ LAC | 17.1 | -0.7 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs SF | 16.4 | -0.3 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs NO | 20.3 | -0.2 | vs NO grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ PIT | 23.4 | +0.4 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs ATL | 23.1 | +0.6 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
Week 15 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs CHI | 24.3 | +1 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ PIT | 23.4 | +0.4 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs ATL | 23.1 | +0.6 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs NYJ | 22.7 | +3.1 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3.1 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ CAR | 21.8 | +0.6 | @ CAR grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ ARI | 21.1 | +2.2 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.2 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs MIA | 20.8 | +0.8 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs NO | 20.3 | -0.2 | vs NO grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs SEA | 19.8 | -2.2 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 2.2 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ LV | 19.8 | +1.2 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs NE | 19.7 | -1.8 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ BUF | 17.4 | -0.8 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ LAC | 17.1 | -0.7 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs SF | 16.4 | -0.3 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ KC | 15.4 | -2 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ HOU | 14.8 | -2.3 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 2.3 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 15 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- ARI vs NYJLead option: Kyler Murray · 22.7 pts+3.1
- NYJ @ ARILead option: Justin Fields · 21.1 pts+2.2
- DEN @ LVLead option: Bo Nix · 19.8 pts+1.2
- BUF vs CHILead option: Josh Allen · 24.3 pts+1
- GB vs MIALead option: Jordan Love · 20.8 pts+0.8
Biggest QB downside
- JAX @ HOULead option: Trevor Lawrence · 14.8 pts-2.3
- PHI vs SEALead option: Jalen Hurts · 19.8 pts-2.2
- NE @ KCLead option: Drake Maye · 15.4 pts-2
- KC vs NELead option: Patrick Mahomes · 19.7 pts-1.8
- CHI @ BUFLead option: Caleb Williams · 17.4 pts-0.8
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 15 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.