Free tool · Nov 24 – Nov 30
Week 12 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 12 · Nov 24 – Nov 30
Start these QBs — week 12
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ DAL | 26.3 | +4.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 4.3 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ ARI | 25.7 | +3.2 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 3.2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs TEN | 19 | +1.9 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.9 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs WAS | 21.3 | +1.7 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs NO | 21.8 | +0.6 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ MIA | 19.5 | +0.6 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ DET | 18.6 | +0.4 | @ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ PIT | 18.7 | +0.1 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs CAR | 20.2 | -0.3 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ BUF | 21 | -0.5 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 12 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ HOU | 20.6 | -2.4 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 2.4 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs SEA | 15.9 | -1.9 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ LAC | 15.7 | -1.7 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs KC | 21.7 | -1.6 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs NE | 15.3 | -1.4 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ LAR | 18.7 | -1.3 | @ LAR grades tough — about 1.3 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ BUF | 21 | -0.5 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs CAR | 20.2 | -0.3 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ PIT | 18.7 | +0.1 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ DET | 18.6 | +0.4 | @ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
Week 12 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ DAL | 26.3 | +4.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 4.3 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ ARI | 25.7 | +3.2 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 3.2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs NO | 21.8 | +0.6 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs KC | 21.7 | -1.6 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs WAS | 21.3 | +1.7 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ BUF | 21 | -0.5 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ HOU | 20.6 | -2.4 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 2.4 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs CAR | 20.2 | -0.3 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ MIA | 19.5 | +0.6 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs TEN | 19 | +1.9 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.9 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ LAR | 18.7 | -1.3 | @ LAR grades tough — about 1.3 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ PIT | 18.7 | +0.1 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 13 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ DET | 18.6 | +0.4 | @ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 14 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs SEA | 15.9 | -1.9 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ LAC | 15.7 | -1.7 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs NE | 15.3 | -1.4 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 12 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- PHI @ DALLead option: Jalen Hurts · 26.3 pts+4.3
- WAS @ ARILead option: Jayden Daniels · 25.7 pts+3.2
- JAX vs TENLead option: Trevor Lawrence · 19 pts+1.9
- ARI vs WASLead option: Kyler Murray · 21.3 pts+1.7
- CIN vs NOLead option: Joe Burrow · 21.8 pts+0.6
Biggest QB downside
- BAL @ HOULead option: Lamar Jackson · 20.6 pts-2.4
- SF vs SEALead option: Brock Purdy · 15.9 pts-1.9
- NE @ LACLead option: Drake Maye · 15.7 pts-1.7
- BUF vs KCLead option: Josh Allen · 21.7 pts-1.6
- LAC vs NELead option: Justin Herbert · 15.3 pts-1.4
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 12 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.