Free tool · Oct 27 – Nov 2
Week 8 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 8 · Oct 27 – Nov 2
Start these QBs — week 8
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs TEN | 24.5 | +3.3 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 3.3 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ DAL | 22.9 | +3.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.3 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ WAS | 24.5 | +2.5 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 2.5 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs LV | 19.6 | +0.7 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs BAL | 23.8 | +0.5 | vs BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs IND | 17.5 | +0.4 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs ATL | 20.8 | +0.3 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ MIA | 17.7 | +0.3 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ BUF | 22.8 | -0.2 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs CAR | 19.7 | -0.3 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 8 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ SEA | 15.6 | -2.6 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ DEN | 19.5 | -2 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs PHI | 20.7 | -1.8 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs KC | 17.2 | -1.4 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ LAR | 15.9 | -0.8 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs CAR | 19.7 | -0.3 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ BUF | 22.8 | -0.2 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs ATL | 20.8 | +0.3 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ MIA | 17.7 | +0.3 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs IND | 17.5 | +0.4 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
Week 8 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ WAS | 24.5 | +2.5 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 2.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs TEN | 24.5 | +3.3 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 3.3 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs BAL | 23.8 | +0.5 | vs BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ DAL | 22.9 | +3.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.3 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ BUF | 22.8 | -0.2 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs ATL | 20.8 | +0.3 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs PHI | 20.7 | -1.8 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs CAR | 19.7 | -0.3 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs LV | 19.6 | +0.7 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ DEN | 19.5 | -2 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ MIA | 17.7 | +0.3 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs IND | 17.5 | +0.4 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 13 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs KC | 17.2 | -1.4 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ LAR | 15.9 | -0.8 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ SEA | 15.6 | -2.6 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week. |
On bye in week 8
SF
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 8 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- ARI @ DALLead option: Kyler Murray · 22.9 pts+3.3
- CIN vs TENLead option: Joe Burrow · 24.5 pts+3.3
- PHI @ WASLead option: Jalen Hurts · 24.5 pts+2.5
- NYJ vs LVLead option: Justin Fields · 19.6 pts+0.7
- BUF vs BALLead option: Josh Allen · 23.8 pts+0.5
Biggest QB downside
- CHI @ SEALead option: Caleb Williams · 15.6 pts-2.6
- KC @ DENLead option: Patrick Mahomes · 19.5 pts-2
- WAS vs PHILead option: Jayden Daniels · 20.7 pts-1.8
- DEN vs KCLead option: Bo Nix · 17.2 pts-1.4
- LAC @ LARLead option: Justin Herbert · 15.9 pts-0.8
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 8 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.