Free tool · Oct 6 – Oct 12
Week 5 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 5 · Oct 6 – Oct 12
Start these QBs — week 5
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ DAL | 23.8 | +3.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.3 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ MIA | 23 | +1.8 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.8 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs NYG | 24.2 | +1.7 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ ATL | 23.9 | +0.9 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs DET | 20.3 | +0.7 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs CHI | 20.6 | +0.6 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs LV | 17.8 | +0.4 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs CLE | 18.3 | -0.6 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ JAX | 21.1 | -0.9 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ GB | 17.3 | -0.9 | @ GB grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 5 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ SEA | 15.9 | -1.9 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs PHI | 15.5 | -1.6 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs DEN | 15.1 | -1.6 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ LAR | 22.2 | -1.1 | @ LAR grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ LAC | 17.5 | -1.1 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ JAX | 21.1 | -0.9 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ GB | 17.3 | -0.9 | @ GB grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs CLE | 18.3 | -0.6 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs LV | 17.8 | +0.4 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs CHI | 20.6 | +0.6 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
Week 5 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs NYG | 24.2 | +1.7 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ ATL | 23.9 | +0.9 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ DAL | 23.8 | +3.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.3 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ MIA | 23 | +1.8 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.8 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ LAR | 22.2 | -1.1 | @ LAR grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ JAX | 21.1 | -0.9 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs CHI | 20.6 | +0.6 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs DET | 20.3 | +0.7 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs CLE | 18.3 | -0.6 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs LV | 17.8 | +0.4 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ LAC | 17.5 | -1.1 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ GB | 17.3 | -0.9 | @ GB grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ SEA | 15.9 | -1.9 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs PHI | 15.5 | -1.6 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs DEN | 15.1 | -1.6 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
On bye in week 5
KC
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 5 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- TB @ DALLead option: Baker Mayfield · 23.8 pts+3.3
- CIN @ MIALead option: Joe Burrow · 23 pts+1.8
- WAS vs NYGLead option: Jayden Daniels · 24.2 pts+1.7
- BAL @ ATLLead option: Lamar Jackson · 23.9 pts+0.9
- ARI vs DETLead option: Kyler Murray · 20.3 pts+0.7
Biggest QB downside
- SF @ SEALead option: Brock Purdy · 15.9 pts-1.9
- JAX vs PHILead option: Trevor Lawrence · 15.5 pts-1.6
- LAC vs DENLead option: Justin Herbert · 15.1 pts-1.6
- BUF @ LARLead option: Josh Allen · 22.2 pts-1.1
- DEN @ LACLead option: Bo Nix · 17.5 pts-1.1
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 5 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.