Free tool · Sep 15 – Sep 21
Week 2 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 2 · Sep 15 – Sep 21
Start these QBs — week 2
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ DAL | 26.4 | +3.9 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.9 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ TEN | 25.3 | +3.3 | @ TEN grades smash spot — worth about 3.3 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ NYJ | 23 | +3 | @ NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs MIA | 19.1 | +1.3 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs LV | 17.8 | +1.1 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs DET | 24.3 | +1 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs IND | 22.4 | +0.9 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs NO | 23.3 | +0.3 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs CLE | 20.2 | -0.3 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs PIT | 16.8 | -0.6 | vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 2 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs SEA | 17.1 | -2.5 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 2.5 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ HOU | 19.3 | -1.9 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ DEN | 15.2 | -1.9 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs MIN | 16.7 | -1.5 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs JAX | 17.4 | -1.2 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs GB | 17.8 | -1.1 | vs GB grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs PIT | 16.8 | -0.6 | vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs CLE | 20.2 | -0.3 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs NO | 23.3 | +0.3 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs IND | 22.4 | +0.9 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
Week 2 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ DAL | 26.4 | +3.9 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.9 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ TEN | 25.3 | +3.3 | @ TEN grades smash spot — worth about 3.3 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs DET | 24.3 | +1 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs NO | 23.3 | +0.3 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ NYJ | 23 | +3 | @ NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs IND | 22.4 | +0.9 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs CLE | 20.2 | -0.3 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ HOU | 19.3 | -1.9 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs MIA | 19.1 | +1.3 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs GB | 17.8 | -1.1 | vs GB grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs LV | 17.8 | +1.1 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs JAX | 17.4 | -1.2 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs SEA | 17.1 | -2.5 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 2.5 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs PIT | 16.8 | -0.6 | vs PIT grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs MIN | 16.7 | -1.5 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ DEN | 15.2 | -1.9 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 2 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- WAS @ DALLead option: Jayden Daniels · 26.4 pts+3.9
- PHI @ TENLead option: Jalen Hurts · 25.3 pts+3.3
- GB @ NYJLead option: Jordan Love · 23 pts+3
- SF vs MIALead option: Brock Purdy · 19.1 pts+1.3
- LAC vs LVLead option: Justin Herbert · 17.8 pts+1.1
Biggest QB downside
- ARI vs SEALead option: Kyler Murray · 17.1 pts-2.5
- CIN @ HOULead option: Joe Burrow · 19.3 pts-1.9
- JAX @ DENLead option: Trevor Lawrence · 15.2 pts-1.9
- CHI vs MINLead option: Caleb Williams · 16.7 pts-1.5
- DEN vs JAXLead option: Bo Nix · 17.4 pts-1.2
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 2 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.