Free tool · Oct 20 – Oct 26

Week 7 QB start or sit

Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.

Week 7 · Oct 20 – Oct 26

Start these QBs — week 7

Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Jalen HurtsQB · PHIvs DAL26.3+4.3vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 4.3 points above a normal week.
2Lamar JacksonQB · BALvs CIN26.7+3.7vs CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.7 points above a normal week.
3Bo NixQB · DEN@ ARI21.2+2.6@ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.6 points above a normal week.
4Joe BurrowQB · CIN@ BAL22.2+1@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week.
5Brock PurdyQB · SF@ ATL18.6+0.8@ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week.
6Jordan LoveQB · GB@ DET20.6+0.6@ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week.
7Justin FieldsQB · NYJvs MIA19.5+0.6vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week.
8Drake MayeQB · NE@ CHI17.40@ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0 points above a normal week.
9Baker MayfieldQB · TB@ CAR20.2-0.3@ CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week.
10Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs NE16.3-1.9vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week.

Sit or downgrade — week 7 QBs

The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ SEA18.9-2.6@ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week.
2Kyler MurrayQB · ARIvs DEN17.6-2vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week.
3Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs NE16.3-1.9vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week.
4Baker MayfieldQB · TB@ CAR20.2-0.3@ CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week.
5Drake MayeQB · NE@ CHI17.40@ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0 points above a normal week.
6Jordan LoveQB · GB@ DET20.6+0.6@ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week.
7Justin FieldsQB · NYJvs MIA19.5+0.6vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week.
8Brock PurdyQB · SF@ ATL18.6+0.8@ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week.
9Joe BurrowQB · CIN@ BAL22.2+1@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week.
10Bo NixQB · DEN@ ARI21.2+2.6@ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.6 points above a normal week.

Week 7 QB rankings

Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Lamar JacksonQB · BALvs CIN26.7+3.7vs CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.7 points above a normal week.
2Jalen HurtsQB · PHIvs DAL26.3+4.3vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 4.3 points above a normal week.
3Joe BurrowQB · CIN@ BAL22.2+1@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week.
4Bo NixQB · DEN@ ARI21.2+2.6@ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.6 points above a normal week.
5Jordan LoveQB · GB@ DET20.6+0.6@ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week.
6Baker MayfieldQB · TB@ CAR20.2-0.3@ CAR grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week.
7Justin FieldsQB · NYJvs MIA19.5+0.6vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week.
8Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ SEA18.9-2.6@ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week.
9Brock PurdyQB · SF@ ATL18.6+0.8@ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week.
10Kyler MurrayQB · ARIvs DEN17.6-2vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week.
11Drake MayeQB · NE@ CHI17.40@ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0 points above a normal week.
12Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs NE16.3-1.9vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week.

On bye in week 7

BUF · JAX · LAC · WAS

Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.

Week 7 QB matchup heatmap

Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.

Biggest QB upside

  1. PHI vs DALLead option: Jalen Hurts · 26.3 pts+4.3
  2. BAL vs CINLead option: Lamar Jackson · 26.7 pts+3.7
  3. DEN @ ARILead option: Bo Nix · 21.2 pts+2.6
  4. CIN @ BALLead option: Joe Burrow · 22.2 pts+1
  5. SF @ ATLLead option: Brock Purdy · 18.6 pts+0.8

Biggest QB downside

  1. KC @ SEALead option: Patrick Mahomes · 18.9 pts-2.6
  2. ARI vs DENLead option: Kyler Murray · 17.6 pts-2
  3. CHI vs NELead option: Caleb Williams · 16.3 pts-1.9
  4. TB @ CARLead option: Baker Mayfield · 20.2 pts-0.3
  5. NE @ CHILead option: Drake Maye · 17.4 pts0

Built from the same matchup grades as the week 7 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.

Other positions, week 7

Week 7 RB →Week 7 WR →Week 7 TE →Week 7 FLEX →Injury impact