Free tool · Sep 22 – Sep 28
Week 3 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 3 · Sep 22 – Sep 28
Start these QBs — week 3
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ DAL | 27.3 | +4.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 4.3 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs ARI | 20.6 | +2.8 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.8 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ CHI | 23.4 | +1.4 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ MIA | 22.7 | +1.2 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ PIT | 22 | +0.8 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ DET | 19.2 | +0.3 | @ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs ATL | 20.2 | +0.2 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ SF | 19.2 | -0.4 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ BUF | 16.3 | -0.4 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs LAR | 17.7 | -0.9 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 3 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs SEA | 19.8 | -2.7 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 2.7 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs PHI | 16.4 | -1.8 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ JAX | 15.6 | -1.8 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs NE | 15.4 | -1.7 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs MIN | 18.9 | -1.6 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs LAC | 22.1 | -1.2 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs LAR | 17.7 | -0.9 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ SF | 19.2 | -0.4 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ BUF | 16.3 | -0.4 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs ATL | 20.2 | +0.2 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
Week 3 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ DAL | 27.3 | +4.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 4.3 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ CHI | 23.4 | +1.4 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ MIA | 22.7 | +1.2 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs LAC | 22.1 | -1.2 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ PIT | 22 | +0.8 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs ARI | 20.6 | +2.8 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.8 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs ATL | 20.2 | +0.2 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs SEA | 19.8 | -2.7 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 2.7 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ SF | 19.2 | -0.4 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ DET | 19.2 | +0.3 | @ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs MIN | 18.9 | -1.6 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs LAR | 17.7 | -0.9 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs PHI | 16.4 | -1.8 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ BUF | 16.3 | -0.4 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ JAX | 15.6 | -1.8 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs NE | 15.4 | -1.7 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 3 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- BAL @ DALLead option: Lamar Jackson · 27.3 pts+4.3
- SF vs ARILead option: Brock Purdy · 20.6 pts+2.8
- PHI @ CHILead option: Jalen Hurts · 23.4 pts+1.4
- KC @ MIALead option: Patrick Mahomes · 22.7 pts+1.2
- CIN @ PITLead option: Joe Burrow · 22 pts+0.8
Biggest QB downside
- WAS vs SEALead option: Jayden Daniels · 19.8 pts-2.7
- CHI vs PHILead option: Caleb Williams · 16.4 pts-1.8
- NE @ JAXLead option: Drake Maye · 15.6 pts-1.8
- JAX vs NELead option: Trevor Lawrence · 15.4 pts-1.7
- TB vs MINLead option: Baker Mayfield · 18.9 pts-1.6
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 3 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.