Free tool · Sep 22 – Sep 28

Week 3 QB start or sit

Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.

Week 3 · Sep 22 – Sep 28

Start these QBs — week 3

Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Lamar JacksonQB · BAL@ DAL27.3+4.3@ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 4.3 points above a normal week.
2Brock PurdyQB · SFvs ARI20.6+2.8vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.8 points above a normal week.
3Jalen HurtsQB · PHI@ CHI23.4+1.4@ CHI grades neutral — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week.
4Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ MIA22.7+1.2@ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week.
5Joe BurrowQB · CIN@ PIT22+0.8@ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week.
6Justin FieldsQB · NYJ@ DET19.2+0.3@ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week.
7Jordan LoveQB · GBvs ATL20.2+0.2vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week.
8Kyler MurrayQB · ARI@ SF19.2-0.4@ SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week.
9Justin HerbertQB · LAC@ BUF16.3-0.4@ BUF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week.
10Bo NixQB · DENvs LAR17.7-0.9vs LAR grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week.

Sit or downgrade — week 3 QBs

The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Jayden DanielsQB · WASvs SEA19.8-2.7vs SEA grades nightmare — about 2.7 points below a normal week.
2Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs PHI16.4-1.8vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week.
3Drake MayeQB · NE@ JAX15.6-1.8@ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week.
4Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXvs NE15.4-1.7vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week.
5Baker MayfieldQB · TBvs MIN18.9-1.6vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week.
6Josh AllenQB · BUFvs LAC22.1-1.2vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
7Bo NixQB · DENvs LAR17.7-0.9vs LAR grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week.
8Kyler MurrayQB · ARI@ SF19.2-0.4@ SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week.
9Justin HerbertQB · LAC@ BUF16.3-0.4@ BUF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week.
10Jordan LoveQB · GBvs ATL20.2+0.2vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week.

Week 3 QB rankings

Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Lamar JacksonQB · BAL@ DAL27.3+4.3@ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 4.3 points above a normal week.
2Jalen HurtsQB · PHI@ CHI23.4+1.4@ CHI grades neutral — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week.
3Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ MIA22.7+1.2@ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week.
4Josh AllenQB · BUFvs LAC22.1-1.2vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
5Joe BurrowQB · CIN@ PIT22+0.8@ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week.
6Brock PurdyQB · SFvs ARI20.6+2.8vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.8 points above a normal week.
7Jordan LoveQB · GBvs ATL20.2+0.2vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week.
8Jayden DanielsQB · WASvs SEA19.8-2.7vs SEA grades nightmare — about 2.7 points below a normal week.
9Kyler MurrayQB · ARI@ SF19.2-0.4@ SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week.
10Justin FieldsQB · NYJ@ DET19.2+0.3@ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week.
11Baker MayfieldQB · TBvs MIN18.9-1.6vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week.
12Bo NixQB · DENvs LAR17.7-0.9vs LAR grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week.
13Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs PHI16.4-1.8vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week.
14Justin HerbertQB · LAC@ BUF16.3-0.4@ BUF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week.
15Drake MayeQB · NE@ JAX15.6-1.8@ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week.
16Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXvs NE15.4-1.7vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week.

Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.

Week 3 QB matchup heatmap

Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.

Biggest QB upside

  1. BAL @ DALLead option: Lamar Jackson · 27.3 pts+4.3
  2. SF vs ARILead option: Brock Purdy · 20.6 pts+2.8
  3. PHI @ CHILead option: Jalen Hurts · 23.4 pts+1.4
  4. KC @ MIALead option: Patrick Mahomes · 22.7 pts+1.2
  5. CIN @ PITLead option: Joe Burrow · 22 pts+0.8

Biggest QB downside

  1. WAS vs SEALead option: Jayden Daniels · 19.8 pts-2.7
  2. CHI vs PHILead option: Caleb Williams · 16.4 pts-1.8
  3. NE @ JAXLead option: Drake Maye · 15.6 pts-1.8
  4. JAX vs NELead option: Trevor Lawrence · 15.4 pts-1.7
  5. TB vs MINLead option: Baker Mayfield · 18.9 pts-1.6

Built from the same matchup grades as the week 3 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.

Other positions, week 3