Free tool · Nov 3 – Nov 9
Week 9 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 9 · Nov 3 – Nov 9
Start these QBs — week 9
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs NYJ | 25 | +3.5 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs NYG | 24.1 | +2.1 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs LV | 19.3 | +1.5 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ ATL | 22.4 | +1.2 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ CHI | 21.1 | +0.6 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs TB | 18.6 | +0.4 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ BAL | 17.2 | +0.1 | @ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ CAR | 18.5 | -0.1 | @ CAR grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs JAX | 21.9 | -1.1 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs LAR | 21.4 | -1.1 | vs LAR grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 9 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ SEA | 17.1 | -2.5 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.5 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ NE | 18 | -2 | @ NE grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs HOU | 14.7 | -2 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ KC | 17 | -1.9 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ MIN | 21.8 | -1.5 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs GB | 16.2 | -1.2 | vs GB grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs JAX | 21.9 | -1.1 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs LAR | 21.4 | -1.1 | vs LAR grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ CAR | 18.5 | -0.1 | @ CAR grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ BAL | 17.2 | +0.1 | @ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
Week 9 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs NYJ | 25 | +3.5 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs NYG | 24.1 | +2.1 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ ATL | 22.4 | +1.2 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs JAX | 21.9 | -1.1 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ MIN | 21.8 | -1.5 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs LAR | 21.4 | -1.1 | vs LAR grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ CHI | 21.1 | +0.6 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs LV | 19.3 | +1.5 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs TB | 18.6 | +0.4 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ CAR | 18.5 | -0.1 | @ CAR grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ NE | 18 | -2 | @ NE grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ BAL | 17.2 | +0.1 | @ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 13 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ SEA | 17.1 | -2.5 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.5 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ KC | 17 | -1.9 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs GB | 16.2 | -1.2 | vs GB grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs HOU | 14.7 | -2 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 9 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- KC vs NYJLead option: Patrick Mahomes · 25 pts+3.5
- PHI vs NYGLead option: Jalen Hurts · 24.1 pts+2.1
- SF vs LVLead option: Brock Purdy · 19.3 pts+1.5
- CIN @ ATLLead option: Joe Burrow · 22.4 pts+1.2
- TB @ CHILead option: Baker Mayfield · 21.1 pts+0.6
Biggest QB downside
- ARI @ SEALead option: Kyler Murray · 17.1 pts-2.5
- GB @ NELead option: Jordan Love · 18 pts-2
- LAC vs HOULead option: Justin Herbert · 14.7 pts-2
- NYJ @ KCLead option: Justin Fields · 17 pts-1.9
- BUF @ MINLead option: Josh Allen · 21.8 pts-1.5
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 9 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.