Free tool · Nov 3 – Nov 9

Week 9 QB start or sit

Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.

Week 9 · Nov 3 – Nov 9

Start these QBs — week 9

Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Patrick MahomesQB · KCvs NYJ25+3.5vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3.5 points above a normal week.
2Jalen HurtsQB · PHIvs NYG24.1+2.1vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week.
3Brock PurdyQB · SFvs LV19.3+1.5vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week.
4Joe BurrowQB · CIN@ ATL22.4+1.2@ ATL grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week.
5Baker MayfieldQB · TB@ CHI21.1+0.6@ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week.
6Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs TB18.6+0.4vs TB grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week.
7Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX@ BAL17.2+0.1@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week.
8Bo NixQB · DEN@ CAR18.5-0.1@ CAR grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week.
9Lamar JacksonQB · BALvs JAX21.9-1.1vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week.
10Jayden DanielsQB · WASvs LAR21.4-1.1vs LAR grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week.

Sit or downgrade — week 9 QBs

The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Kyler MurrayQB · ARI@ SEA17.1-2.5@ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.5 points below a normal week.
2Jordan LoveQB · GB@ NE18-2@ NE grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week.
3Justin HerbertQB · LACvs HOU14.7-2vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week.
4Justin FieldsQB · NYJ@ KC17-1.9@ KC grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week.
5Josh AllenQB · BUF@ MIN21.8-1.5@ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week.
6Drake MayeQB · NEvs GB16.2-1.2vs GB grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
7Lamar JacksonQB · BALvs JAX21.9-1.1vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week.
8Jayden DanielsQB · WASvs LAR21.4-1.1vs LAR grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week.
9Bo NixQB · DEN@ CAR18.5-0.1@ CAR grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week.
10Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX@ BAL17.2+0.1@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week.

Week 9 QB rankings

Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Patrick MahomesQB · KCvs NYJ25+3.5vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3.5 points above a normal week.
2Jalen HurtsQB · PHIvs NYG24.1+2.1vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week.
3Joe BurrowQB · CIN@ ATL22.4+1.2@ ATL grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week.
4Lamar JacksonQB · BALvs JAX21.9-1.1vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week.
5Josh AllenQB · BUF@ MIN21.8-1.5@ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week.
6Jayden DanielsQB · WASvs LAR21.4-1.1vs LAR grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week.
7Baker MayfieldQB · TB@ CHI21.1+0.6@ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week.
8Brock PurdyQB · SFvs LV19.3+1.5vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week.
9Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs TB18.6+0.4vs TB grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week.
10Bo NixQB · DEN@ CAR18.5-0.1@ CAR grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week.
11Jordan LoveQB · GB@ NE18-2@ NE grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week.
12Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX@ BAL17.2+0.1@ BAL grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week.
13Kyler MurrayQB · ARI@ SEA17.1-2.5@ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.5 points below a normal week.
14Justin FieldsQB · NYJ@ KC17-1.9@ KC grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week.
15Drake MayeQB · NEvs GB16.2-1.2vs GB grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
16Justin HerbertQB · LACvs HOU14.7-2vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week.

Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.

Week 9 QB matchup heatmap

Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.

Biggest QB upside

  1. KC vs NYJLead option: Patrick Mahomes · 25 pts+3.5
  2. PHI vs NYGLead option: Jalen Hurts · 24.1 pts+2.1
  3. SF vs LVLead option: Brock Purdy · 19.3 pts+1.5
  4. CIN @ ATLLead option: Joe Burrow · 22.4 pts+1.2
  5. TB @ CHILead option: Baker Mayfield · 21.1 pts+0.6

Biggest QB downside

  1. ARI @ SEALead option: Kyler Murray · 17.1 pts-2.5
  2. GB @ NELead option: Jordan Love · 18 pts-2
  3. LAC vs HOULead option: Justin Herbert · 14.7 pts-2
  4. NYJ @ KCLead option: Justin Fields · 17 pts-1.9
  5. BUF @ MINLead option: Josh Allen · 21.8 pts-1.5

Built from the same matchup grades as the week 9 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.

Other positions, week 9