Free tool · Jan 5 – Jan 11
Week 18 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 18 · Jan 5 – Jan 11
Start these QBs — week 18
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs NYJ | 27.2 | +3.9 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3.9 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs DAL | 26.4 | +3.9 | vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.9 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ ARI | 20.6 | +2.8 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.8 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ NYG | 24.1 | +2.1 | @ NYG grades good matchup — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs LV | 22.9 | +1.4 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs CLE | 21.8 | +0.6 | vs CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs DET | 20.6 | +0.6 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs PIT | 23.4 | +0.4 | vs PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ IND | 17.5 | +0.4 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs MIA | 17.7 | +0.3 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 18 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ DEN | 15.1 | -1.6 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ MIN | 16.7 | -1.5 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs LAC | 17.5 | -1.1 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ BUF | 18 | -0.9 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs SF | 19.2 | -0.4 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ NO | 20.3 | -0.2 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs MIA | 17.7 | +0.3 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs PIT | 23.4 | +0.4 | vs PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ IND | 17.5 | +0.4 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs CLE | 21.8 | +0.6 | vs CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
Week 18 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs NYJ | 27.2 | +3.9 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 3.9 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs DAL | 26.4 | +3.9 | vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.9 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ NYG | 24.1 | +2.1 | @ NYG grades good matchup — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs PIT | 23.4 | +0.4 | vs PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs LV | 22.9 | +1.4 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs CLE | 21.8 | +0.6 | vs CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs DET | 20.6 | +0.6 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ ARI | 20.6 | +2.8 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.8 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ NO | 20.3 | -0.2 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs SF | 19.2 | -0.4 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ BUF | 18 | -0.9 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs MIA | 17.7 | +0.3 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 13 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs LAC | 17.5 | -1.1 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ IND | 17.5 | +0.4 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 15 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | @ MIN | 16.7 | -1.5 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ DEN | 15.1 | -1.6 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 18 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- BUF vs NYJLead option: Josh Allen · 27.2 pts+3.9
- WAS vs DALLead option: Jayden Daniels · 26.4 pts+3.9
- SF @ ARILead option: Brock Purdy · 20.6 pts+2.8
- PHI @ NYGLead option: Jalen Hurts · 24.1 pts+2.1
- KC vs LVLead option: Patrick Mahomes · 22.9 pts+1.4
Biggest QB downside
- LAC @ DENLead option: Justin Herbert · 15.1 pts-1.6
- CHI @ MINLead option: Caleb Williams · 16.7 pts-1.5
- DEN vs LACLead option: Bo Nix · 17.5 pts-1.1
- NYJ @ BUFLead option: Justin Fields · 18 pts-0.9
- ARI vs SFLead option: Kyler Murray · 19.2 pts-0.4
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 18 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.