Free tool · Dec 29 – Jan 4
Week 17 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 17 · Dec 29 – Jan 4
Start these QBs — week 17
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ CIN | 26.7 | +3.7 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.7 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ MIA | 24.7 | +1.4 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs WAS | 18.4 | +1.3 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs LV | 20.8 | +1.2 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs BAL | 22.2 | +1 | vs BAL grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs DET | 18.6 | +0.4 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ SF | 22.1 | +0.1 | @ SF grades tough — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs PHI | 16.7 | -1.1 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LAC | 20.3 | -1.2 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs LAR | 19.3 | -1.2 | vs LAR grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 17 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs HOU | 17.4 | -2.6 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs DEN | 15 | -2.4 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2.4 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs MIN | 17.2 | -1.7 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ NE | 17 | -1.6 | @ NE grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ JAX | 21.1 | -1.4 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LAC | 20.3 | -1.2 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs LAR | 19.3 | -1.2 | vs LAR grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs KC | 15.5 | -1.2 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs PHI | 16.7 | -1.1 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ SF | 22.1 | +0.1 | @ SF grades tough — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
Week 17 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | @ CIN | 26.7 | +3.7 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.7 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ MIA | 24.7 | +1.4 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs BAL | 22.2 | +1 | vs BAL grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ SF | 22.1 | +0.1 | @ SF grades tough — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ JAX | 21.1 | -1.4 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs LV | 20.8 | +1.2 | vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LAC | 20.3 | -1.2 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs LAR | 19.3 | -1.2 | vs LAR grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs DET | 18.6 | +0.4 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | vs WAS | 18.4 | +1.3 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | vs HOU | 17.4 | -2.6 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs MIN | 17.2 | -1.7 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ NE | 17 | -1.6 | @ NE grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs PHI | 16.7 | -1.1 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | vs KC | 15.5 | -1.2 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs DEN | 15 | -2.4 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2.4 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 17 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- BAL @ CINLead option: Lamar Jackson · 26.7 pts+3.7
- BUF @ MIALead option: Josh Allen · 24.7 pts+1.4
- JAX vs WASLead option: Trevor Lawrence · 18.4 pts+1.3
- ARI vs LVLead option: Kyler Murray · 20.8 pts+1.2
- CIN vs BALLead option: Joe Burrow · 22.2 pts+1
Biggest QB downside
- GB vs HOULead option: Jordan Love · 17.4 pts-2.6
- NE vs DENLead option: Drake Maye · 15 pts-2.4
- NYJ vs MINLead option: Justin Fields · 17.2 pts-1.7
- DEN @ NELead option: Bo Nix · 17 pts-1.6
- WAS @ JAXLead option: Jayden Daniels · 21.1 pts-1.4
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 17 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.