Free tool · Dec 29 – Jan 4

Week 17 QB start or sit

Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.

Week 17 · Dec 29 – Jan 4

Start these QBs — week 17

Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Lamar JacksonQB · BAL@ CIN26.7+3.7@ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.7 points above a normal week.
2Josh AllenQB · BUF@ MIA24.7+1.4@ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week.
3Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXvs WAS18.4+1.3vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week.
4Kyler MurrayQB · ARIvs LV20.8+1.2vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week.
5Joe BurrowQB · CINvs BAL22.2+1vs BAL grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week.
6Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs DET18.6+0.4vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week.
7Jalen HurtsQB · PHI@ SF22.1+0.1@ SF grades tough — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week.
8Brock PurdyQB · SFvs PHI16.7-1.1vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week.
9Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ LAC20.3-1.2@ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
10Baker MayfieldQB · TBvs LAR19.3-1.2vs LAR grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week.

Sit or downgrade — week 17 QBs

The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Jordan LoveQB · GBvs HOU17.4-2.6vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week.
2Drake MayeQB · NEvs DEN15-2.4vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2.4 points below a normal week.
3Justin FieldsQB · NYJvs MIN17.2-1.7vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week.
4Bo NixQB · DEN@ NE17-1.6@ NE grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week.
5Jayden DanielsQB · WAS@ JAX21.1-1.4@ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week.
6Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ LAC20.3-1.2@ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
7Baker MayfieldQB · TBvs LAR19.3-1.2vs LAR grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
8Justin HerbertQB · LACvs KC15.5-1.2vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
9Brock PurdyQB · SFvs PHI16.7-1.1vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week.
10Jalen HurtsQB · PHI@ SF22.1+0.1@ SF grades tough — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week.

Week 17 QB rankings

Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.

#PlayerMatchupProjSwingWhy
1Lamar JacksonQB · BAL@ CIN26.7+3.7@ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 3.7 points above a normal week.
2Josh AllenQB · BUF@ MIA24.7+1.4@ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week.
3Joe BurrowQB · CINvs BAL22.2+1vs BAL grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week.
4Jalen HurtsQB · PHI@ SF22.1+0.1@ SF grades tough — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week.
5Jayden DanielsQB · WAS@ JAX21.1-1.4@ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week.
6Kyler MurrayQB · ARIvs LV20.8+1.2vs LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week.
7Patrick MahomesQB · KC@ LAC20.3-1.2@ LAC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
8Baker MayfieldQB · TBvs LAR19.3-1.2vs LAR grades tough — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
9Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIvs DET18.6+0.4vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week.
10Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXvs WAS18.4+1.3vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week.
11Jordan LoveQB · GBvs HOU17.4-2.6vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.6 points below a normal week.
12Justin FieldsQB · NYJvs MIN17.2-1.7vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week.
13Bo NixQB · DEN@ NE17-1.6@ NE grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week.
14Brock PurdyQB · SFvs PHI16.7-1.1vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week.
15Justin HerbertQB · LACvs KC15.5-1.2vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week.
16Drake MayeQB · NEvs DEN15-2.4vs DEN grades nightmare — about 2.4 points below a normal week.

Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.

Week 17 QB matchup heatmap

Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.

Biggest QB upside

  1. BAL @ CINLead option: Lamar Jackson · 26.7 pts+3.7
  2. BUF @ MIALead option: Josh Allen · 24.7 pts+1.4
  3. JAX vs WASLead option: Trevor Lawrence · 18.4 pts+1.3
  4. ARI vs LVLead option: Kyler Murray · 20.8 pts+1.2
  5. CIN vs BALLead option: Joe Burrow · 22.2 pts+1

Biggest QB downside

  1. GB vs HOULead option: Jordan Love · 17.4 pts-2.6
  2. NE vs DENLead option: Drake Maye · 15 pts-2.4
  3. NYJ vs MINLead option: Justin Fields · 17.2 pts-1.7
  4. DEN @ NELead option: Bo Nix · 17 pts-1.6
  5. WAS @ JAXLead option: Jayden Daniels · 21.1 pts-1.4

Built from the same matchup grades as the week 17 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.

Other positions, week 17