Free tool · Dec 1 – Dec 7
Week 13 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 13 · Dec 1 – Dec 7
Start these QBs — week 13
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ ARI | 25.5 | +3.5 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 3.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ TEN | 25.4 | +2.9 | @ TEN grades smash spot — worth about 2.9 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ NYG | 19.4 | +1.6 | @ NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.6 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs MIA | 19.6 | +1 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ CLE | 21.8 | +0.6 | @ CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ TB | 17.3 | +0.6 | @ TB grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ CHI | 17.6 | +0.5 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ NO | 19.7 | -0.3 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LAR | 20.5 | -1 | @ LAR grades tough — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs BUF | 16.3 | -1.1 | vs BUF grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 13 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ NE | 21.4 | -1.9 | @ NE grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs PHI | 17.9 | -1.7 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs JAX | 16.7 | -1.5 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs LAC | 19.1 | -1.4 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs BUF | 16.3 | -1.1 | vs BUF grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LAR | 20.5 | -1 | @ LAR grades tough — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ NO | 19.7 | -0.3 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ CHI | 17.6 | +0.5 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ CLE | 21.8 | +0.6 | @ CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ TB | 17.3 | +0.6 | @ TB grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
Week 13 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | @ ARI | 25.5 | +3.5 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 3.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ TEN | 25.4 | +2.9 | @ TEN grades smash spot — worth about 2.9 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ CLE | 21.8 | +0.6 | @ CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ NE | 21.4 | -1.9 | @ NE grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LAR | 20.5 | -1 | @ LAR grades tough — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ NO | 19.7 | -0.3 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs MIA | 19.6 | +1 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ NYG | 19.4 | +1.6 | @ NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.6 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs LAC | 19.1 | -1.4 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | vs PHI | 17.9 | -1.7 | vs PHI grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ CHI | 17.6 | +0.5 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ TB | 17.3 | +0.6 | @ TB grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 13 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs JAX | 16.7 | -1.5 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Drake MayeQB · NE | vs BUF | 16.3 | -1.1 | vs BUF grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
On bye in week 13
BAL · NYJ
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 13 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- PHI @ ARILead option: Jalen Hurts · 25.5 pts+3.5
- WAS @ TENLead option: Jayden Daniels · 25.4 pts+2.9
- SF @ NYGLead option: Brock Purdy · 19.4 pts+1.6
- DEN vs MIALead option: Bo Nix · 19.6 pts+1
- CIN @ CLELead option: Joe Burrow · 21.8 pts+0.6
Biggest QB downside
- BUF @ NELead option: Josh Allen · 21.4 pts-1.9
- ARI vs PHILead option: Kyler Murray · 17.9 pts-1.7
- CHI vs JAXLead option: Caleb Williams · 16.7 pts-1.5
- TB vs LACLead option: Baker Mayfield · 19.1 pts-1.4
- NE vs BUFLead option: Drake Maye · 16.3 pts-1.1
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 13 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.