Free tool · Updates weekly · Week 1
RB start or sit — week 1
Running back start/sit calls live and die on game script. A back on a team likely to lead gets the fourth-quarter carries; a back chasing points loses them, which is why the swing column moves more here than anywhere else.
Week 1 · Sep 8 – Sep 14
Start these RBs — week 1
Biggest positive matchup swing at running back this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | vs WAS | 20 | +2.1 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | @ CIN | 16.1 | +1.9 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.9 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | vs ARI | 13.5 | +1.7 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | vs DAL | 9.6 | +1.2 | vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | vs DAL | 9.2 | +1.2 | vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | vs ARI | 8.4 | +1 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | vs TB | 14.3 | +0.9 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | vs NYJ | 10.7 | +0.9 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | @ IND | 13.4 | +0.6 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | @ LV | 16.5 | +0.5 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 1 RBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James CookRB · BUF | @ HOU | 10.8 | -1.4 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | vs NE | 9.7 | -1.2 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | @ MIN | 12 | -1.1 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Isiah PachecoRB · KC | vs DEN | 8.1 | -0.8 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | vs NE | 6.8 | -0.8 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | @ KC | 9.5 | -0.7 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | @ PHI | 6.6 | -0.6 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | @ LAR | 14.7 | -0.5 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs GB | 8.8 | -0.5 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | @ PIT | 18.3 | -0.4 | @ PIT grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
Week 1 RB rankings
Every running back ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | vs WAS | 20 | +2.1 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | @ PIT | 18.3 | -0.4 | @ PIT grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | vs NO | 17.8 | +0.4 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | @ LV | 16.5 | +0.5 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | @ CIN | 16.1 | +1.9 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.9 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | vs MIA | 15.6 | +0.4 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | @ LAR | 14.7 | -0.5 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | vs TB | 14.3 | +0.9 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | vs BAL | 14.1 | -0.4 | vs BAL grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | vs ARI | 13.5 | +1.7 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | @ IND | 13.4 | +0.6 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | vs SF | 12.8 | -0.4 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | @ MIN | 12 | -1.1 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | @ DET | 11.2 | -0.1 | @ DET grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | James CookRB · BUF | @ HOU | 10.8 | -1.4 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | vs NO | 10.8 | +0.2 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 17 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | vs NYJ | 10.7 | +0.9 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | vs NE | 9.7 | -1.2 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 19 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | vs DAL | 9.6 | +1.2 | vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 20 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | @ KC | 9.5 | -0.7 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 21 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | vs DAL | 9.2 | +1.2 | vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 22 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs GB | 8.8 | -0.5 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 23 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | vs ATL | 8.5 | -0.2 | vs ATL grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 24 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | vs ARI | 8.4 | +1 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 25 | Isiah PachecoRB · KC | vs DEN | 8.1 | -0.8 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 26 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | vs NE | 6.8 | -0.8 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 27 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | @ PHI | 6.6 | -0.6 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 1 RB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's RB starters.
Biggest RB upside
- PHI vs WASLead option: Saquon Barkley · 20 pts+2.1
- TB @ CINLead option: Bucky Irving · 16.1 pts+1.9
- LAC vs ARILead option: Omarion Hampton · 13.5 pts+1.4
- NYG vs DALLead option: Cam Skattebo · 9.6 pts+1.2
- CIN vs TBLead option: Chase Brown · 14.3 pts+0.9
Biggest RB downside
- BUF @ HOULead option: James Cook · 10.8 pts-1.4
- GB @ MINLead option: Josh Jacobs · 12 pts-1.1
- SEA vs NELead option: Kenneth Walker III · 9.7 pts-1
- KC vs DENLead option: Isiah Pacheco · 8.1 pts-0.8
- DEN @ KCLead option: RJ Harvey · 9.5 pts-0.7
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 1 RB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.