Free tool · Dec 22 – Dec 28
Week 16 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 16 · Dec 22 – Dec 28
Start these QBs — week 16
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ DAL | 19.8 | +2.7 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.7 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ NYJ | 19.5 | +2.1 | @ NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ IND | 22.7 | +1.5 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ MIA | 17.6 | +0.9 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ CHI | 20.6 | +0.6 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ ATL | 20.8 | +0.3 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs CLE | 23.2 | +0.2 | vs CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ NO | 19.5 | -0.1 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs SF | 21.2 | -0.3 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs BUF | 18.1 | -0.5 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 16 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ DEN | 21.1 | -2.2 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 2.2 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs HOU | 19.9 | -2.1 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.1 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs NE | 16.8 | -2.1 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 2.1 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ MIN | 21 | -1.5 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ KC | 16.8 | -1 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs GB | 17.3 | -0.9 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs BUF | 18.1 | -0.5 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs SF | 21.2 | -0.3 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ NO | 19.5 | -0.1 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs CLE | 23.2 | +0.2 | vs CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
Week 16 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs CLE | 23.2 | +0.2 | vs CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | @ IND | 22.7 | +1.5 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | vs SF | 21.2 | -0.3 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | @ DEN | 21.1 | -2.2 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 2.2 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | @ MIN | 21 | -1.5 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | @ ATL | 20.8 | +0.3 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ CHI | 20.6 | +0.6 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs HOU | 19.9 | -2.1 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 2.1 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ DAL | 19.8 | +2.7 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.7 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ NO | 19.5 | -0.1 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ NYJ | 19.5 | +2.1 | @ NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Bo NixQB · DEN | vs BUF | 18.1 | -0.5 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ MIA | 17.6 | +0.9 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 14 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs GB | 17.3 | -0.9 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | vs NE | 16.8 | -2.1 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 2.1 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | @ KC | 16.8 | -1 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 1 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 16 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- JAX @ DALLead option: Trevor Lawrence · 19.8 pts+2.7
- NE @ NYJLead option: Drake Maye · 19.5 pts+2.1
- CIN @ INDLead option: Joe Burrow · 22.7 pts+1.5
- LAC @ MIALead option: Justin Herbert · 17.6 pts+0.9
- GB @ CHILead option: Jordan Love · 20.6 pts+0.6
Biggest QB downside
- BUF @ DENLead option: Josh Allen · 21.1 pts-2.2
- NYJ vs NELead option: Justin Fields · 16.8 pts-2.1
- PHI vs HOULead option: Jalen Hurts · 19.9 pts-2.1
- WAS @ MINLead option: Jayden Daniels · 21 pts-1.5
- SF @ KCLead option: Brock Purdy · 16.8 pts-1
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 16 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.