Free tool · Sep 29 – Oct 5
Week 4 QB start or sit
Quarterback is the position where matchup matters least week to week, because volume is fixed at roughly 35 dropbacks whoever they play. The swing you see here is mostly rushing upside and pace, not passing yardage.
Week 4 · Sep 29 – Oct 5
Start these QBs — week 4
Biggest positive matchup swing at quarterback this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs TEN | 26.2 | +3.2 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 3.2 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs NYJ | 20.8 | +2.6 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 2.6 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ CIN | 19.3 | +2.2 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 2.2 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LV | 22.9 | +1.4 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ NYG | 21 | +1.4 | @ NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs IND | 23.4 | +0.9 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ TB | 20.5 | +0.5 | @ TB grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ CHI | 19.2 | +0.3 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ SF | 18.3 | -0.3 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs LAR | 21.4 | -0.6 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 4 QBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ SEA | 14.7 | -2 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs NE | 21.4 | -1.9 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs DEN | 16.4 | -1.4 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ BUF | 16.3 | -1.1 | @ BUF grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs GB | 19.7 | -0.8 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs JAX | 20.5 | -0.7 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs LAR | 21.4 | -0.6 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ SF | 18.3 | -0.3 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ CHI | 19.2 | +0.3 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ TB | 20.5 | +0.5 | @ TB grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
Week 4 QB rankings
Every quarterback ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | vs TEN | 26.2 | +3.2 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 3.2 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | vs IND | 23.4 | +0.9 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | @ LV | 22.9 | +1.4 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | vs NE | 21.4 | -1.9 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | vs LAR | 21.4 | -0.6 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Kyler MurrayQB · ARI | @ NYG | 21 | +1.4 | @ NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | vs NYJ | 20.8 | +2.6 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 2.6 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | vs JAX | 20.5 | -0.7 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | @ TB | 20.5 | +0.5 | @ TB grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | vs GB | 19.7 | -0.8 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | @ CIN | 19.3 | +2.2 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 2.2 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Justin FieldsQB · NYJ | @ CHI | 19.2 | +0.3 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 13 | Bo NixQB · DEN | @ SF | 18.3 | -0.3 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | vs DEN | 16.4 | -1.4 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Drake MayeQB · NE | @ BUF | 16.3 | -1.1 | @ BUF grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | @ SEA | 14.7 | -2 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 4 QB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's QB starters.
Biggest QB upside
- BAL vs TENLead option: Lamar Jackson · 26.2 pts+3.2
- CHI vs NYJLead option: Caleb Williams · 20.8 pts+2.6
- JAX @ CINLead option: Trevor Lawrence · 19.3 pts+2.2
- ARI @ NYGLead option: Kyler Murray · 21 pts+1.4
- KC @ LVLead option: Patrick Mahomes · 22.9 pts+1.4
Biggest QB downside
- LAC @ SEALead option: Justin Herbert · 14.7 pts-2
- BUF vs NELead option: Josh Allen · 21.4 pts-1.9
- SF vs DENLead option: Brock Purdy · 16.4 pts-1.4
- NE @ BUFLead option: Drake Maye · 16.3 pts-1.1
- TB vs GBLead option: Baker Mayfield · 19.7 pts-0.8
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 4 QB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.