Free tool · Oct 6 – Oct 12
Week 5 RB start or sit
Running back start/sit calls live and die on game script. A back on a team likely to lead gets the fourth-quarter carries; a back chasing points loses them, which is why the swing column moves more here than anywhere else.
Week 5 · Oct 6 – Oct 12
Start these RBs — week 5
Biggest positive matchup swing at running back this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | @ ARI | 20.3 | +2.9 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.9 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | @ DAL | 16.5 | +2.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.3 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | vs CIN | 17.8 | +1.8 | vs CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.8 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | @ ARI | 12.3 | +1.7 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | @ MIA | 14.5 | +1.1 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | @ ATL | 13.3 | +0.5 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | @ WAS | 8.9 | +0.5 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | @ WAS | 8.5 | +0.5 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | vs NYG | 7.7 | +0.5 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | vs CHI | 13.4 | +0.3 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 5 RBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | @ NE | 13.4 | -1.8 | @ NE grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | vs HOU | 8 | -1.8 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | @ SEA | 13.6 | -1.6 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | vs MIN | 10 | -1.3 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.3 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | vs DEN | 10.7 | -1.1 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | @ JAX | 17.2 | -0.7 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | vs DEN | 6.7 | -0.7 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | @ PIT | 13.9 | -0.6 | @ PIT grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | James CookRB · BUF | @ LAR | 11.6 | -0.6 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | vs BUF | 12.7 | -0.5 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
Week 5 RB rankings
Every running back ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | @ ARI | 20.3 | +2.9 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 2.9 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | vs BAL | 18.6 | -0.1 | vs BAL grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | vs CIN | 17.8 | +1.8 | vs CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.8 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | @ JAX | 17.2 | -0.7 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | @ DAL | 16.5 | +2.3 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.3 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | @ MIA | 14.5 | +1.1 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | @ PIT | 13.9 | -0.6 | @ PIT grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | @ SEA | 13.6 | -1.6 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | @ NE | 13.4 | -1.8 | @ NE grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | vs CHI | 13.4 | +0.3 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | @ ATL | 13.3 | +0.5 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | vs BUF | 12.7 | -0.5 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | @ ARI | 12.3 | +1.7 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 14 | James CookRB · BUF | @ LAR | 11.6 | -0.6 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | vs DEN | 10.7 | -1.1 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | vs SF | 10.4 | -0.5 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 17 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | vs MIN | 10 | -1.3 | vs MIN grades nightmare — about 1.3 points below a normal week. |
| 18 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | @ LAC | 9.7 | -0.5 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 19 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | @ NO | 9.1 | -0.2 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 20 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | @ WAS | 8.9 | +0.5 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 21 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | vs IND | 8.6 | -0.1 | vs IND grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 22 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | @ WAS | 8.5 | +0.5 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 23 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | vs HOU | 8 | -1.8 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 24 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | vs NYG | 7.7 | +0.5 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 25 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | vs SF | 7.3 | -0.3 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 26 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | vs DEN | 6.7 | -0.7 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
On bye in week 5
KC
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 5 RB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's RB starters.
Biggest RB upside
- DET @ ARILead option: Jahmyr Gibbs · 20.3 pts+2.3
- TB @ DALLead option: Bucky Irving · 16.5 pts+2.3
- MIA vs CINLead option: De'Von Achane · 17.8 pts+1.8
- CIN @ MIALead option: Chase Brown · 14.5 pts+1.1
- BAL @ ATLLead option: Derrick Henry · 13.3 pts+0.5
Biggest RB downside
- LV @ NELead option: Ashton Jeanty · 13.4 pts-1.8
- TEN vs HOULead option: Tony Pollard · 8 pts-1.8
- SF @ SEALead option: Christian McCaffrey · 13.6 pts-1.6
- NO vs MINLead option: Alvin Kamara · 10 pts-1.3
- LAC vs DENLead option: Omarion Hampton · 10.7 pts-0.9
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 5 RB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.