Free tool · Sep 29 – Oct 5
Week 4 RB start or sit
Running back start/sit calls live and die on game script. A back on a team likely to lead gets the fourth-quarter carries; a back chasing points loses them, which is why the swing column moves more here than anywhere else.
Week 4 · Sep 29 – Oct 5
Start these RBs — week 4
Biggest positive matchup swing at running back this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | vs TEN | 14.5 | +1.7 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | vs ARI | 9.3 | +0.9 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | vs ARI | 8.9 | +0.9 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | @ WAS | 15.1 | +0.6 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Isiah PachecoRB · KC | @ LV | 9.5 | +0.6 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | @ CAR | 17.8 | +0.4 | @ CAR grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | @ TB | 13.4 | +0.3 | @ TB grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs MIA | 9.6 | +0.3 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | vs IND | 7.5 | +0.3 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | @ CAR | 10.8 | +0.2 | @ CAR grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 4 RBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | @ MIN | 14.4 | -1.6 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | vs KC | 13.6 | -1.6 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | @ SEA | 10.4 | -1.4 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | vs DEN | 14 | -1.2 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | @ PHI | 12 | -1.2 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | James CookRB · BUF | vs NE | 11.2 | -1 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | vs LAC | 10 | -0.9 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | @ SEA | 6.5 | -0.9 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | vs GB | 13.6 | -0.6 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | vs LAC | 7 | -0.6 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
Week 4 RB rankings
Every running back ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | @ NO | 18.2 | -0.5 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | @ CAR | 17.8 | +0.4 | @ CAR grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | vs LAR | 17.4 | -0.5 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | @ WAS | 15.1 | +0.6 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | vs TEN | 14.5 | +1.7 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | @ MIN | 14.4 | -1.6 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | vs DEN | 14 | -1.2 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | vs KC | 13.6 | -1.6 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | vs GB | 13.6 | -0.6 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | @ TB | 13.4 | +0.3 | @ TB grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | vs JAX | 13 | -0.4 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | @ PHI | 12 | -1.2 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | James CookRB · BUF | vs NE | 11.2 | -1 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | vs ATL | 11 | -0.3 | vs ATL grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | @ CAR | 10.8 | +0.2 | @ CAR grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 16 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | @ SEA | 10.4 | -1.4 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 17 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | @ SF | 10.1 | -0.1 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | vs LAC | 10 | -0.9 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 19 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs MIA | 9.6 | +0.3 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 20 | Isiah PachecoRB · KC | @ LV | 9.5 | +0.6 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.6 points above a normal week. |
| 21 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | @ BAL | 9.3 | -0.5 | @ BAL grades neutral — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 22 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | vs ARI | 9.3 | +0.9 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 23 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | vs ARI | 8.9 | +0.9 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 24 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | @ CLE | 8.3 | -0.4 | @ CLE grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 25 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | vs IND | 7.5 | +0.3 | vs IND grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 26 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | vs LAC | 7 | -0.6 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 27 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | @ SEA | 6.5 | -0.9 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 4 RB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's RB starters.
Biggest RB upside
- BAL vs TENLead option: Derrick Henry · 14.5 pts+1.7
- NYG vs ARILead option: Cam Skattebo · 9.3 pts+0.9
- IND @ WASLead option: Jonathan Taylor · 15.1 pts+0.6
- KC @ LVLead option: Isiah Pacheco · 9.5 pts+0.6
- DET @ CARLead option: Jahmyr Gibbs · 17.8 pts+0.3
Biggest RB downside
- LV vs KCLead option: Ashton Jeanty · 13.6 pts-1.6
- MIA @ MINLead option: De'Von Achane · 14.4 pts-1.6
- LAR @ PHILead option: Kyren Williams · 12 pts-1.2
- SF vs DENLead option: Christian McCaffrey · 14 pts-1.2
- LAC @ SEALead option: Omarion Hampton · 10.4 pts-1.1
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 4 RB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.