Free tool · Nov 24 – Nov 30
Week 12 RB start or sit
Running back start/sit calls live and die on game script. A back on a team likely to lead gets the fourth-quarter carries; a back chasing points loses them, which is why the swing column moves more here than anywhere else.
Week 12 · Nov 24 – Nov 30
Start these RBs — week 12
Biggest positive matchup swing at running back this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | @ DAL | 21.4 | +3.5 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | vs NYJ | 18 | +2 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | vs CHI | 18.6 | +1.2 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | @ CIN | 12.4 | +1.1 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | @ ARI | 8.2 | +1 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | vs CHI | 11.3 | +0.7 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | vs NYG | 14.9 | +0.4 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | vs NO | 13.8 | +0.4 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | @ PIT | 10.3 | +0.1 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | @ IND | 8.1 | +0.1 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 12 RBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | @ MIN | 17 | -1.7 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | vs SEA | 13.6 | -1.6 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | @ HOU | 11.4 | -1.4 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | @ JAX | 8.5 | -1.3 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.3 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | vs DEN | 7.5 | -1.2 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | vs NE | 10.8 | -1 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | @ LAR | 12.2 | -0.9 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | James CookRB · BUF | vs KC | 11.3 | -0.9 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | vs GB | 12.6 | -0.6 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | vs NE | 6.8 | -0.6 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
Week 12 RB rankings
Every running back ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | @ DAL | 21.4 | +3.5 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 3.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | vs CHI | 18.6 | +1.2 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | vs NYJ | 18 | +2 | vs NYJ grades smash spot — worth about 2 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | @ MIN | 17 | -1.7 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | vs NYG | 14.9 | +0.4 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | @ CLE | 14.7 | -0.5 | @ CLE grades neutral — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | vs CAR | 14 | -0.2 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | vs NO | 13.8 | +0.4 | vs NO grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | vs SEA | 13.6 | -1.6 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 1.6 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | vs GB | 12.6 | -0.6 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 11 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | @ CIN | 12.4 | +1.1 | @ CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.1 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | @ LAR | 12.2 | -0.9 | @ LAR grades tough — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | @ HOU | 11.4 | -1.4 | @ HOU grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | James CookRB · BUF | vs KC | 11.3 | -0.9 | vs KC grades nightmare — about 0.9 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | vs CHI | 11.3 | +0.7 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 16 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | vs NE | 10.8 | -1 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 17 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | @ SF | 10.4 | -0.5 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 18 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | @ PIT | 10.3 | +0.1 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 19 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs ATL | 9.3 | 0 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0 points above a normal week. |
| 20 | Isiah PachecoRB · KC | @ BUF | 8.7 | -0.2 | @ BUF grades tough — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 21 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | @ JAX | 8.5 | -1.3 | @ JAX grades nightmare — about 1.3 points below a normal week. |
| 22 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | @ IND | 8.4 | 0 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0 points above a normal week. |
| 23 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | @ ARI | 8.2 | +1 | @ ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 24 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | @ IND | 8.1 | +0.1 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 25 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | vs DEN | 7.5 | -1.2 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.2 points below a normal week. |
| 26 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | @ SF | 7.3 | -0.3 | @ SF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 27 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | vs NE | 6.8 | -0.6 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 12 RB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's RB starters.
Biggest RB upside
- PHI @ DALLead option: Saquon Barkley · 21.4 pts+3.5
- MIA vs NYJLead option: De'Von Achane · 18 pts+2
- NO @ CINLead option: Alvin Kamara · 12.4 pts+1.1
- DET vs CHILead option: Jahmyr Gibbs · 18.6 pts+1
- WAS @ ARILead option: Brian Robinson Jr. · 8.2 pts+1
Biggest RB downside
- ATL @ MINLead option: Bijan Robinson · 17 pts-1.7
- SF vs SEALead option: Christian McCaffrey · 13.6 pts-1.6
- BAL @ HOULead option: Derrick Henry · 11.4 pts-1.4
- TEN @ JAXLead option: Tony Pollard · 8.5 pts-1.3
- PIT vs DENLead option: Jaylen Warren · 7.5 pts-1.2
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 12 RB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.