Free tool · Dec 22 – Dec 28
Week 16 RB start or sit
Running back start/sit calls live and die on game script. A back on a team likely to lead gets the fourth-quarter carries; a back chasing points loses them, which is why the swing column moves more here than anywhere else.
Week 16 · Dec 22 – Dec 28
Start these RBs — week 16
Biggest positive matchup swing at running back this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | vs NYG | 19.1 | +1.7 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | vs TEN | 16.7 | +1.5 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | vs CIN | 15.9 | +1.4 | vs CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | vs ARI | 12.3 | +1 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | vs NYG | 11.6 | +1 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | @ IND | 14.3 | +0.9 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | @ MIA | 12.5 | +0.7 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs WAS | 10 | +0.7 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | @ MIA | 7.8 | +0.4 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | @ CHI | 13.4 | +0.3 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 16 RBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | @ SEA | 11.4 | -1.8 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | vs HOU | 16.2 | -1.7 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | vs LAC | 14.5 | -1.5 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | James CookRB · BUF | @ DEN | 11.1 | -1.1 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | @ KC | 14.4 | -0.8 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | vs LAR | 10.1 | -0.8 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | vs LAR | 7 | -0.6 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | @ MIN | 6.7 | -0.5 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | vs CAR | 8.3 | -0.4 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | vs BUF | 10 | -0.2 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
Week 16 RB rankings
Every running back ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | vs NYG | 19.1 | +1.7 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | vs TB | 18.9 | +0.2 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | vs TEN | 16.7 | +1.5 | vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | vs HOU | 16.2 | -1.7 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | vs CIN | 15.9 | +1.4 | vs CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | vs LAC | 14.5 | -1.5 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | @ KC | 14.4 | -0.8 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | @ ATL | 14.4 | +0.2 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | @ IND | 14.3 | +0.9 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 0.9 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | @ CHI | 13.4 | +0.3 | @ CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | vs CLE | 12.9 | +0.1 | vs CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 12 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | @ MIA | 12.5 | +0.7 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 13 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | vs ARI | 12.3 | +1 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 14 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | vs NYG | 11.6 | +1 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 15 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | @ SEA | 11.4 | -1.8 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | James CookRB · BUF | @ DEN | 11.1 | -1.1 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 17 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | vs LAR | 10.1 | -0.8 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 18 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | vs BUF | 10 | -0.2 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 19 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs WAS | 10 | +0.7 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 20 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | @ LV | 9.8 | 0 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 0 points above a normal week. |
| 21 | Isiah PachecoRB · KC | vs SF | 8.8 | -0.1 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 22 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | @ DET | 8.5 | +0.1 | @ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 23 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | vs CAR | 8.3 | -0.4 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 24 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | @ DET | 8.1 | +0.1 | @ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 25 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | @ MIA | 7.8 | +0.4 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.4 points above a normal week. |
| 26 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | vs LAR | 7 | -0.6 | vs LAR grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 27 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | @ MIN | 6.7 | -0.5 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 16 RB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's RB starters.
Biggest RB upside
- LV vs TENLead option: Ashton Jeanty · 16.7 pts+1.5
- DET vs NYGLead option: Jahmyr Gibbs · 19.1 pts+1.4
- IND vs CINLead option: Jonathan Taylor · 15.9 pts+1.4
- NO vs ARILead option: Alvin Kamara · 12.3 pts+1
- CIN @ INDLead option: Chase Brown · 14.3 pts+0.9
Biggest RB downside
- LAR @ SEALead option: Kyren Williams · 11.4 pts-1.8
- PHI vs HOULead option: Saquon Barkley · 16.2 pts-1.7
- MIA vs LACLead option: De'Von Achane · 14.5 pts-1.5
- BUF @ DENLead option: James Cook · 11.1 pts-1.1
- SF @ KCLead option: Christian McCaffrey · 14.4 pts-0.8
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 16 RB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.