Free tool · Dec 15 – Dec 21
Week 15 RB start or sit
Running back start/sit calls live and die on game script. A back on a team likely to lead gets the fourth-quarter carries; a back chasing points loses them, which is why the swing column moves more here than anywhere else.
Week 15 · Dec 15 – Dec 21
Start these RBs — week 15
Biggest positive matchup swing at running back this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | vs DAL | 15.3 | +2.1 | vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | @ WAS | 19.9 | +1.2 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | @ TEN | 15.7 | +1.2 | @ TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | @ LV | 10.9 | +0.7 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | vs MIA | 13.6 | +0.5 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | James CookRB · BUF | vs CHI | 12.7 | +0.5 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | @ CAR | 13.7 | +0.3 | @ CAR grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | @ PIT | 13 | +0.2 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs DET | 9.5 | +0.2 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | vs ATL | 7.4 | +0.2 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 15 RBs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | vs DEN | 13.3 | -1.9 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | vs SEA | 16.1 | -1.8 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | @ GB | 14.9 | -1.1 | @ GB grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | @ PHI | 9.8 | -1.1 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | @ PHI | 6.8 | -0.8 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | @ MIN | 16.7 | -0.7 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Isiah PachecoRB · KC | vs NE | 8.2 | -0.7 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | @ LAC | 14.6 | -0.6 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | @ MIN | 10.2 | -0.4 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | vs IND | 9.5 | -0.3 | vs IND grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
Week 15 RB rankings
Every running back ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | @ WAS | 19.9 | +1.2 | @ WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | @ MIN | 16.7 | -0.7 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | vs SEA | 16.1 | -1.8 | vs SEA grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | @ TEN | 15.7 | +1.2 | @ TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.2 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | vs DAL | 15.3 | +2.1 | vs DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.1 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | @ GB | 14.9 | -1.1 | @ GB grades tough — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | @ LAC | 14.6 | -0.6 | @ LAC grades nightmare — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | vs NO | 14 | -0.2 | vs NO grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | @ CAR | 13.7 | +0.3 | @ CAR grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | vs MIA | 13.6 | +0.5 | vs MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | vs DEN | 13.3 | -1.9 | vs DEN grades nightmare — about 1.9 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | @ PIT | 13 | +0.2 | @ PIT grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 13 | James CookRB · BUF | vs CHI | 12.7 | +0.5 | vs CHI grades neutral — worth about 0.5 points above a normal week. |
| 14 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | vs SF | 11.6 | -0.2 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Alvin KamaraRB · NO | @ TB | 11.2 | -0.1 | @ TB grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | RJ HarveyRB · DEN | @ LV | 10.9 | +0.7 | @ LV grades good matchup — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 17 | David MontgomeryRB · DET | @ MIN | 10.2 | -0.4 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 0.4 points below a normal week. |
| 18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · SEA | @ PHI | 9.8 | -1.1 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 1.1 points below a normal week. |
| 19 | Tony PollardRB · TEN | vs IND | 9.5 | -0.3 | vs IND grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 20 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | vs DET | 9.5 | +0.2 | vs DET grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 21 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | vs BAL | 8.5 | -0.2 | vs BAL grades neutral — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 22 | Isiah PachecoRB · KC | vs NE | 8.2 | -0.7 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 0.7 points below a normal week. |
| 23 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | vs CLE | 8.1 | -0.3 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 24 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYG | vs CLE | 7.7 | -0.3 | vs CLE grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 25 | Brian Robinson Jr.RB · WAS | vs ATL | 7.4 | +0.2 | vs ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 26 | Najee HarrisRB · LAC | vs SF | 7.3 | -0.1 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 27 | Zach CharbonnetRB · SEA | @ PHI | 6.8 | -0.8 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 15 RB matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's RB starters.
Biggest RB upside
- LAR vs DALLead option: Kyren Williams · 15.3 pts+2.1
- ATL @ WASLead option: Bijan Robinson · 19.9 pts+1.2
- IND @ TENLead option: Jonathan Taylor · 15.7 pts+1.2
- DEN @ LVLead option: RJ Harvey · 10.9 pts+0.7
- BUF vs CHILead option: James Cook · 12.7 pts+0.5
Biggest RB downside
- LV vs DENLead option: Ashton Jeanty · 13.3 pts-1.9
- PHI vs SEALead option: Saquon Barkley · 16.1 pts-1.8
- MIA @ GBLead option: De'Von Achane · 14.9 pts-1.1
- SEA @ PHILead option: Kenneth Walker III · 9.8 pts-0.9
- KC vs NELead option: Isiah Pacheco · 8.2 pts-0.7
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 15 RB start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.