Free tool · Dec 22 – Dec 28
Week 16 WR start or sit
Receivers are the most volatile weekly position, so the honest use of this board is picking between two similar flex options — not benching a target hog because the coverage grades well.
Week 16 · Dec 22 – Dec 28
Start these WRs — week 16
Biggest positive matchup swing at wide receiver this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX | @ DAL | 17.9 | +2.5 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.5 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | vs NYG | 18.2 | +1.7 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Travis HunterWR · JAX | @ DAL | 11.1 | +1.6 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 1.6 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | @ IND | 20.8 | +1.3 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | vs WAS | 19.5 | +1.3 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | @ IND | 14.6 | +1 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 7 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | vs NYG | 10.6 | +1 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC | @ MIA | 14.3 | +0.8 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Rashid ShaheedWR · NO | vs ARI | 8 | +0.7 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
| 10 | Michael Pittman Jr.WR · IND | vs CIN | 7.8 | +0.7 | vs CIN grades smash spot — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
Sit or downgrade — week 16 WRs
The schedule works against these names. Elite players still start; use this to settle close calls.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | @ SEA | 14.5 | -2.2 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.2 points below a normal week. |
| 2 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | @ PHI | 13.5 | -2.1 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 2.1 points below a normal week. |
| 3 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | vs JAX | 15.8 | -1.8 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 4 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | @ SEA | 10.6 | -1.7 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 5 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | vs NE | 11.8 | -1.5 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 6 | A.J. BrownWR · PHI | vs HOU | 13.2 | -1.4 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | vs LAR | 11.9 | -1 | vs LAR grades tough — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 8 | Tyreek HillWR · MIA | vs LAC | 9.8 | -1 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 9 | Terry McLaurinWR · WAS | @ MIN | 11.3 | -0.8 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Khalil ShakirWR · BUF | @ DEN | 8 | -0.8 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
Week 16 WR rankings
Every wide receiver ranked by matchup-adjusted projection for this week.
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | @ IND | 20.8 | +1.3 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 2 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | vs WAS | 19.5 | +1.3 | vs WAS grades good matchup — worth about 1.3 points above a normal week. |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | vs NYG | 18.2 | +1.7 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week. |
| 4 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX | @ DAL | 17.9 | +2.5 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.5 points above a normal week. |
| 5 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | @ DET | 16.5 | +0.3 | @ DET grades neutral — worth about 0.3 points above a normal week. |
| 6 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | vs JAX | 15.8 | -1.8 | vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week. |
| 7 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | vs TB | 14.9 | +0.1 | vs TB grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 8 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | @ IND | 14.6 | +1 | @ IND grades neutral — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 9 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | @ SEA | 14.5 | -2.2 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.2 points below a normal week. |
| 10 | Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC | @ MIA | 14.3 | +0.8 | @ MIA grades neutral — worth about 0.8 points above a normal week. |
| 11 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | @ PHI | 13.5 | -2.1 | @ PHI grades nightmare — about 2.1 points below a normal week. |
| 12 | A.J. BrownWR · PHI | vs HOU | 13.2 | -1.4 | vs HOU grades nightmare — about 1.4 points below a normal week. |
| 13 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARI | @ NO | 12.5 | -0.1 | @ NO grades neutral — about 0.1 points below a normal week. |
| 14 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | vs LAR | 11.9 | -1 | vs LAR grades tough — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 15 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | vs NE | 11.8 | -1.5 | vs NE grades nightmare — about 1.5 points below a normal week. |
| 16 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | vs CLE | 11.5 | +0.1 | vs CLE grades neutral — worth about 0.1 points above a normal week. |
| 17 | Terry McLaurinWR · WAS | @ MIN | 11.3 | -0.8 | @ MIN grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 18 | DK MetcalfWR · PIT | vs CAR | 11.1 | -0.6 | vs CAR grades neutral — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 19 | Travis HunterWR · JAX | @ DAL | 11.1 | +1.6 | @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 1.6 points above a normal week. |
| 20 | Courtland SuttonWR · DEN | vs BUF | 10.8 | -0.3 | vs BUF grades tough — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 21 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | @ SEA | 10.6 | -1.7 | @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week. |
| 22 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | vs NYG | 10.6 | +1 | vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1 points above a normal week. |
| 23 | Chris GodwinWR · TB | @ ATL | 10.2 | +0.2 | @ ATL grades neutral — worth about 0.2 points above a normal week. |
| 24 | Tyreek HillWR · MIA | vs LAC | 9.8 | -1 | vs LAC grades nightmare — about 1 points below a normal week. |
| 25 | Rome OdunzeWR · CHI | vs GB | 9.8 | -0.6 | vs GB grades tough — about 0.6 points below a normal week. |
| 26 | Jerry JeudyWR · CLE | @ BAL | 9.8 | -0.3 | @ BAL grades neutral — about 0.3 points below a normal week. |
| 27 | Jauan JenningsWR · SF | @ KC | 8.7 | -0.5 | @ KC grades nightmare — about 0.5 points below a normal week. |
| 28 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | vs SF | 8.4 | -0.2 | vs SF grades tough — about 0.2 points below a normal week. |
| 29 | Khalil ShakirWR · BUF | @ DEN | 8 | -0.8 | @ DEN grades nightmare — about 0.8 points below a normal week. |
| 30 | Rashid ShaheedWR · NO | vs ARI | 8 | +0.7 | vs ARI grades smash spot — worth about 0.7 points above a normal week. |
Comparing two specific names? Run them through the start/sit optimizer or check injury impact before you lock the lineup.
Week 16 WR matchup heatmap
Green is a matchup that adds points to a normal week, red is one that takes them away. The number is the average swing in points for that team's WR starters.
Biggest WR upside
- JAX @ DALLead option: Brian Thomas Jr. · 17.9 pts+2.1
- DET vs NYGLead option: Amon-Ra St. Brown · 18.2 pts+1.4
- MIN vs WASLead option: Justin Jefferson · 19.5 pts+1.3
- CIN @ INDLead option: Ja'Marr Chase · 20.8 pts+1.2
- LAC @ MIALead option: Ladd McConkey · 14.3 pts+0.8
Biggest WR downside
- HOU @ PHILead option: Nico Collins · 13.5 pts-2.1
- LAR @ SEALead option: Puka Nacua · 14.5 pts-1.9
- DAL vs JAXLead option: CeeDee Lamb · 15.8 pts-1.8
- NYJ vs NELead option: Garrett Wilson · 11.8 pts-1.5
- PHI vs HOULead option: A.J. Brown · 13.2 pts-1.4
Built from the same matchup grades as the week 16 WR start/sit board, so a hot cell and a start call always agree.