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Drafting from pick 4: your round-by-round plan
Pick 4 sits at the edge of the elite tier — sometimes the fourth anchor falls, sometimes the tier breaks right before you. The plan below reflects both branches across simulated 12-team drafts from this slot.
First six rounds
WR-RB-RB-WR-WR-RB
Across 12-team PPR simulations from pick 4, this is the shape that came back most often. Your first pick is overall 4, and you wait 17 picks for the turn.
Usually gone before you're on the clock: Ja'Marr Chase.
| Round | Pick | Target | Who's usually there |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WR90% | CeeDee Lamb WR · 40%Justin Jefferson WR · 38%Ja'Marr Chase WR · 13% |
| 2 | 21 | RB50% | Jonathan Taylor RB · 20%Bucky Irving RB · 15%A.J. Brown WR · 15% |
| 3 | 28 | RB50% | Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · 23%Kyren Williams RB · 20%Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · 18% |
| 4 | 45 | WR60% | Courtland Sutton WR · 28%Tyreek Hill WR · 18%Kenneth Walker III RB · 18% |
| 5 | 52 | WR48% | Jerry Jeudy WR · 23%RJ Harvey RB · 18%David Montgomery RB · 10% |
| 6 | 69 | RB33% | Isiah Pacheco RB · 18%Joe Burrow QB · 10%Jaylen Warren RB · 8% |
| 7 | 76 | TE45% | Tucker Kraft TE · 18%Dallas Goedert TE · 15%Cam Skattebo RB · 13% |
How to use this plan
Treat the target column as a default, not a rule. The percentage next to each position tells you how strong that default is: anything above 70% held in almost every simulation, while a 40% target means the room decides it for you and you should stay flexible. The names are who fell to that pick most often — if one of them is gone, take the next player at the same position rather than reaching a round early.
Watch the tier break at 4.00. If the top tier is gone, do not reach for the name — take the position with the steepest drop-off after your next pick.
FAQ
- Is pick 4 a good draft slot?
- Pick 4 is a strong slot with a real decision attached: whether to chase the last elite anchor or start early on a position that will be gone by your turn. The percentages below tell you how often each call was right.
- How is this plan generated?
- We run dozens of seeded mock drafts from pick 4 with opponent models that chase positional runs, then aggregate what was still on the board at each of your picks. The percentages are how often that position or player was the call.
- Does the plan change for PPR, standard or superflex?
- Yes. Switch scoring or turn on superflex above the table and the whole board re-simulates, because replacement level and quarterback demand move with the format.
- Can I practice this slot before my real draft?
- Yes — open the free mock draft simulator and set your slot to 4, or sync your live draft board with the Draft Waiver overlay for the same math against real opponents.
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Pick 1
Round-by-round plan from the 1 slot.
Pick 2
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Pick 3
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Pick 5
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Pick 6
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Pick 7
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Pick 8
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Pick 9
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Pick 10
Round-by-round plan from the 10 slot.
Pick 11
Round-by-round plan from the 11 slot.
Pick 12
Round-by-round plan from the 12 slot.
Mock simulator
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