Week 16 of the 2026 NFL season runs Dec 22 – Dec 28. Rankings below are matchup-adjusted PPR projections: every player's own weekly baseline moved by the defense he faces and the offense he plays in. The injury section is a contingency board — what each start is worth per week, and who absorbs the touches if he cannot go.
Week 16 takeaways
- Jahmyr Gibbs is the week's top-ranked running back at 19.1 projected points, drawing vs NYG.
- Ja'Marr Chase heads the receiver board at 20.8 projected points.
- Biggest matchup swing: Brian Thomas Jr. gains about 2.5 points on a normal week @ DAL.
- Hardest spot on the slate: Puka Nacua loses roughly 2.2 points @ SEA.
- No teams are on bye this week, so the waiver pool stays shallow.
Week 16 player rankings by position
Matchup-adjusted PPR projections. Swing is the difference from that player's own normal week.
Quarterback rankings — Week 16
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson (BAL) | vs CLE | 23.2 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Joe Burrow (CIN) | @ IND | 22.7 | +1.5 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | vs SF | 21.2 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Josh Allen (BUF) | @ DEN | 21.1 | -2.2 |
| 5 | Jayden Daniels (WAS) | @ MIN | 21 | -1.5 |
| 6 | Baker Mayfield (TB) | @ ATL | 20.8 | +0.3 |
| 7 | Jordan Love (GB) | @ CHI | 20.6 | +0.6 |
| 8 | Jalen Hurts (PHI) | vs HOU | 19.9 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | @ DAL | 19.8 | +2.7 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray (ARI) | @ NO | 19.5 | -0.1 |
| 11 | Drake Maye (NE) | @ NYJ | 19.5 | +2.1 |
| 12 | Bo Nix (DEN) | vs BUF | 18.1 | -0.5 |
Running back rankings — Week 16
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | vs NYG | 19.1 | +1.7 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson (ATL) | vs TB | 18.9 | +0.2 |
| 3 | Ashton Jeanty (LV) | vs TEN | 16.7 | +1.5 |
| 4 | Saquon Barkley (PHI) | vs HOU | 16.2 | -1.7 |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor (IND) | vs CIN | 15.9 | +1.4 |
| 6 | De'Von Achane (MIA) | vs LAC | 14.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Christian McCaffrey (SF) | @ KC | 14.4 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Bucky Irving (TB) | @ ATL | 14.4 | +0.2 |
| 9 | Chase Brown (CIN) | @ IND | 14.3 | +0.9 |
| 10 | Josh Jacobs (GB) | @ CHI | 13.4 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Derrick Henry (BAL) | vs CLE | 12.9 | +0.1 |
| 12 | Omarion Hampton (LAC) | @ MIA | 12.5 | +0.7 |
Wide receiver rankings — Week 16
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | @ IND | 20.8 | +1.3 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson (MIN) | vs WAS | 19.5 | +1.3 |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | vs NYG | 18.2 | +1.7 |
| 4 | Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | @ DAL | 17.9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Malik Nabers (NYG) | @ DET | 16.5 | +0.3 |
| 6 | CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | vs JAX | 15.8 | -1.8 |
| 7 | Drake London (ATL) | vs TB | 14.9 | +0.1 |
| 8 | Tee Higgins (CIN) | @ IND | 14.6 | +1 |
| 9 | Puka Nacua (LAR) | @ SEA | 14.5 | -2.2 |
| 10 | Ladd McConkey (LAC) | @ MIA | 14.3 | +0.8 |
| 11 | Nico Collins (HOU) | @ PHI | 13.5 | -2.1 |
| 12 | A.J. Brown (PHI) | vs HOU | 13.2 | -1.4 |
Tight end rankings — Week 16
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Bowers (LV) | vs TEN | 15.2 | +1.3 |
| 2 | Trey McBride (ARI) | @ NO | 13.1 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Sam LaPorta (DET) | vs NYG | 12.6 | +1.1 |
| 4 | George Kittle (SF) | @ KC | 11.4 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Travis Kelce (KC) | vs SF | 10.7 | -0.2 |
| 6 | T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | vs WAS | 10.7 | +0.7 |
| 7 | Mark Andrews (BAL) | vs CLE | 10.6 | +0.1 |
| 8 | Evan Engram (DEN) | vs BUF | 9.3 | -0.2 |
| 9 | Tucker Kraft (GB) | @ CHI | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Dallas Goedert (PHI) | vs HOU | 8.1 | -0.8 |
| 11 | Colston Loveland (CHI) | vs GB | 7.7 | -0.4 |
| 12 | Hunter Henry (NE) | @ NYJ | 7.7 | +0.9 |
Week 16 risers
- Brian Thomas Jr. (WR) @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 2.5 points above a normal week.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) vs NYG grades good matchup — worth about 1.7 points above a normal week.
- Travis Hunter (WR) @ DAL grades smash spot — worth about 1.6 points above a normal week.
- Ashton Jeanty (RB) vs TEN grades smash spot — worth about 1.5 points above a normal week.
- Jonathan Taylor (RB) vs CIN grades smash spot — worth about 1.4 points above a normal week.
Week 16 fallers
- Puka Nacua (WR) @ SEA grades nightmare — about 2.2 points below a normal week.
- Nico Collins (WR) @ PHI grades nightmare — about 2.1 points below a normal week.
- CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs JAX grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week.
- Kyren Williams (RB) @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.8 points below a normal week.
- Saquon Barkley (RB) vs HOU grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week.
- Davante Adams (WR) @ SEA grades nightmare — about 1.7 points below a normal week.
Week 16 injury report and contingency plans
What each start is worth per week, and who absorbs the work if he cannot go.
George Kittle · TE · SF12.1 pts/week at stake
With George Kittle out you lose about 12.1 points and there is no obvious in-house replacement — look to the waiver wire rather than the depth chart.
Sam LaPorta · TE · DET11.5 pts/week at stake
With Sam LaPorta out you lose about 11.5 points and there is no obvious in-house replacement — look to the waiver wire rather than the depth chart.
Travis Kelce · TE · KC10.9 pts/week at stake
With Travis Kelce out you lose about 10.9 points and there is no obvious in-house replacement — look to the waiver wire rather than the depth chart.
Mark Andrews · TE · BAL10.5 pts/week at stake
With Mark Andrews out you lose about 10.5 points and there is no obvious in-house replacement — look to the waiver wire rather than the depth chart.
T.J. Hockenson · TE · MIN10 pts/week at stake
With T.J. Hockenson out you lose about 10 points and there is no obvious in-house replacement — look to the waiver wire rather than the depth chart.
Ja'Marr Chase · WR · CIN19.5 pts/week at stake
With Ja'Marr Chase out you lose about 19.5 points of weekly production. Tee Higgins is the likeliest beneficiary and projects near 21.8 points in that role.
Evan Engram · TE · DEN9.5 pts/week at stake
With Evan Engram out you lose about 9.5 points and there is no obvious in-house replacement — look to the waiver wire rather than the depth chart.
Jahmyr Gibbs · RB · DET17.4 pts/week at stake
With Jahmyr Gibbs out you lose about 17.4 points of weekly production. David Montgomery is the likeliest beneficiary and projects near 22.4 points in that role.