Tight endcliff of 106 points from the best to the last starter · 1 in the overall top 24
Top-heavy: a handful of tight ends clear replacement level by a wide margin, then it flattens instantly. Either take one of the few or take the last one.
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Fantasy football draft guide: position value, round tiers and the ADP curve
Three things decide a draft: which positions are actually scarce, what a pick is worth in each block of rounds, and when value stops falling fast enough to matter. Every number below comes from the same value-over-replacement engine the draft room runs, so the guide and the tool always agree.
1. Position value: where scarcity is
Value over replacement measures a player against the last startable option at his own position — not against the field. The bigger the cliff between the best player and the last starter, the more an early pick there is worth.
Running backcliff of 101 points from the best to the last starter · 10 in the overall top 24
Smallest supply of true starters and the steepest cliff. Back-end RB2s are close to waiver-wire value, which is why the first two rounds are still won and lost at running back.
Wide receivercliff of 101 points from the best to the last starter · 13 in the overall top 24
Deepest starting pool because most leagues start three. Value falls slowly, so receivers are the safest place to wait — and the best place to take volume in the middle rounds.
Quarterbackcliff of 86 points from the best to the last starter · 0 in the overall top 24
One starter, deep pool. The gap between QB1 and QB12 is the smallest at any position, so paying an early pick for a quarterback costs you a starter somewhere that matters more.
2. Round tiers: what each block buys
Draft in blocks, not picks. Each tier below has a job; the sample players are the names currently going in that ADP range.
Rounds 1–2 — Anchorspicks 1–24
Take the highest-VORP player available and ignore position runs. These are the only picks where you can buy a genuine weekly advantage rather than a replaceable starter.
- Ja'Marr Chase WR · ADP 1.1
- Bijan Robinson RB · ADP 1.6
- Justin Jefferson WR · ADP 2.4
- Saquon Barkley RB · ADP 3.1
- CeeDee Lamb WR · ADP 4.2
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · ADP 4.8
- Puka Nacua WR · ADP 6.5
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · ADP 7.4
- Malik Nabers WR · ADP 8.9
- De'Von Achane RB · ADP 9.6
Rounds 3–5 — Starterspicks 25–60
Fill the slots that cost the most to fill later. If you opened with two running backs, this is where the receiver room gets built — and vice versa. Avoid taking a second player from a position you already have covered.
- Chase Brown RB · ADP 25.9
- Garrett Wilson WR · ADP 26.8
- Kyren Williams RB · ADP 27.5
- Josh Jacobs RB · ADP 28.6
- George Kittle TE · ADP 29.4
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · ADP 30.7
- Jalen Hurts QB · ADP 31.5
- Derrick Henry RB · ADP 32.2
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ADP 33.8
- Patrick Mahomes QB · ADP 35
Rounds 6–9 — Value pocketpicks 61–108
The widest gap between ADP and real value. Target players whose projection beats their draft slot, take the last elite tight end if one has slipped, and start looking at quarterbacks if you have waited.
- Evan Engram TE · ADP 61.8
- Justin Fields QB · ADP 63
- Tony Pollard RB · ADP 64.2
- Jameson Williams WR · ADP 65.4
- Travis Hunter WR · ADP 66.1
- Dallas Goedert TE · ADP 67.5
- Bo Nix QB · ADP 68.9
- Aaron Jones RB · ADP 70.2
- Jauan Jennings WR · ADP 71.4
- Caleb Williams QB · ADP 72.6
Rounds 10–12 — Upside swingspicks 109–144
Handcuff your own workhorse back first, then draft players who can win you a week rather than backups who can only stop you losing one.
Rounds 13+ — Lottery ticketspicks 145–260
Bench spots are waiver-wire currency. Take rookies, ambiguous backfields and injury replacements — anyone whose value can double on a single depth chart change.
3. The ADP curve: when value runs out
Average value over replacement for the players going in each round, as a share of what the first pick is worth. Value is cut in half by around pick 37 — every pick after that is closer to the pick behind it than to the pick in front.
- Picks 1–12100%
- Picks 13–2465%
- Picks 25–3653%
- Picks 37–4842%
- Picks 49–6030%
- Picks 61–7217%
- Picks 73–8410%
- Picks 85–961%
- Picks 97–1080%
The practical reading: reaching a round early for a player you like is cheap once the curve flattens, and expensive while it is still steep. Early on, take the board's best value; later, take the player nobody else is planning to take.
Frequently asked questions
Should I draft a running back in the first round?
Usually yes, but for a reason people skip: running back has the steepest drop from its best player to its last starter, so the picks you spend early buy more advantage there than anywhere else. If the board hands you a receiver with a bigger value-over-replacement number, take the receiver.
When should I draft a quarterback?
In a one-quarterback league, late. The gap between the first quarterback and the twelfth is the smallest at any position, so an early quarterback costs you a starter at a position where the drop-off is real. Superflex flips this entirely — there, quarterbacks are the scarcest asset on the board.
What is a tier and why does it beat a ranking list?
A tier is a group of players who are close enough in value that it does not matter which one you get. Rankings make you chase names; tiers tell you when to act. The only question on the clock is whether you are taking the last player in a tier or the first player in the next one.
How much should I trust ADP?
Use it as a market price, not a ranking. ADP tells you when a player will be gone; your own value numbers tell you whether he is worth the pick. The gap between the two is where every value pick in the middle rounds comes from.
How many running backs and receivers should I end the draft with?
In a standard 12-team league, five or six running backs and six or seven receivers is a healthy split, with one quarterback, one tight end and streamable defense and kicker slots. Fill starters first, then spend late picks on players whose value can double, not on backups who protect a floor.
Take it into a real draft
Run a free mock with these tiers live on the board, then check the weekly rankings and injury report once the season starts.